In order to understand how climate change has evolved over time, it is crucial to look at the trends of the past. However, these trends will not be able to predict the future. With the help of climate models scientists are able to better communicate possible future scenarios while still communicating an aspect of uncertainty since the future is ever changing. Running a simple climate model and analyzing diagrams that use RCPs, based upon the IPCC, will better inform people about the actions and policies that need to happen to address climate change. Read and watch the resources below to learn more.
Background Resources to Prepare for Discussion
Consider having students read/watch some or all of these resources before you meet to provide background on the topic.
- Watch How Climate Scientists Predict the Future (9:12)
- Watch How NASA Satellites Help Model the Future of Climate (4:39)
- Read the MIT Explainer about Climate Models
- Watch the Introductory Video (3:56) on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).
Facilitating the Discussion
You may choose to begin your discussion by going through the slide deck with students. Notes for facilitating/presenting can be found in the notes section of the slide deck
- Activity Option 1:
- Introduce the idea of climate models and discuss the different types of models (physical, conceptual and mathematical) and how they are used to study Climate Change.
- Use The Very Simple Climate Model to allow students to manipulate a model and understand changes in temperature throughout the 21st century.
- Discuss these Three Scenarios and have students work together on computers running the simulation. Highlighting important ideas of certainty/uncertainty in the context of scientific modelling.
- Activity Option 2:
- The IPCC plays an important role in climate change policy. Have students look into and discuss the consistent language in Excerpts from the IPCC’s Summary for Policymakers, often used in their reporting and levels of confidence used in the predicted outcomes.
- Allow students to analyze the graphs for carbon emissions and temperature and discuss which pathway(s) seem more realistic, what assumptions would each trajectory be based on, and predict the impacts of the projections
Discussion Questions
- Why is it important to model different emissions scenarios?
- The media that attempts to sow doubt about climate change often says that scientists don’t really know what will happen in the future. Do you think this is accurate? Why or why not?
- How does uncertainty make it more complicated to create policies in response to climate change? To what degree should uncertainty and risk be considered? Does the existence of uncertainty make a scientific matter any less real or important to act on?
- What additional questions do we have about this topic that we’d like to explore further?
- Can we think of any ideas for action projects related to this topic?
Extension Resources
These resources should take students beyond understanding of the issue into locally relevant data and/or action
- Explore the En-ROADS Climate Solutions Simulator. Challenge students to use the simulator to create a climate action scenario to limit global warming to 1.5℃.
- Join a Globe Program and over a million other citizen scientists to gather data and help scientists better understand our world.
- US Climate Resilience Toolkit allows students to explore past, present, and projected future climate in easy-to-understand maps and graphs. The site shows climate data from 1950 through 2100 for every county in the United States.
Related Resources
Note to Chapter Leaders: These resources are available for your use or you may choose to use your own local resources on this topic. We also encourage you to involve student leaders in facilitating lessons and discussions.
